Rory McIlroy

2026 Truist Championship odds, picks: golf model that nailed 17 majors makes surprising predictions

The PGA Tour’s busy spring stretch continues this week with the 2026 Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. The tournament begins Thursday and arrives one week before the PGA Championship, the second major of the season.

The Truist Championship is another Signature Event on the schedule, following last week’s Cadillac Championship. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is not playing this week, but Rory McIlroy headlines the field and enters as the betting favorite.

According to the latest 2026 Truist Championship odds from FanDuel, McIlroy is listed at +550. Cameron Young follows at +950 after his wire-to-wire victory at the Blue Monster last week. Xander Schauffele is priced at +1000, while Matt Fitzpatrick is +1500 and Ludvig Aberg is +1800.

SportsLine’s computer model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated the 2026 Truist Championship 10,000 times. The model has a long track record in golf projections and has correctly predicted 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, its fifth straight Masters call. It also hit last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.

One of the model’s biggest calls this week involves Si Woo Kim. Despite being seventh on the odds board at +2500, Kim is not projected as one of the top contenders. The model has him barely inside the top 20 on its projected leaderboard.

Kim comes into the event in strong recent form, with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. That includes a tie for fourth at the Cadillac Championship. He also finished solo eighth at last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, though that result was helped by a second-round 64. In his other three rounds, Kim shot 71 or higher.

Because of that, the model is fading him this week and describes him as “a golfer to avoid this week.” Another notable projection is Adam Scott, who is listed at +3300. The model views Scott as a target for outright bets as well as finishing-position markets, including top-five and top-10 wagers.

Scott tied Kim for fourth at the Cadillac Championship last week, giving him his second top-five finish of the year. While his putting has been inconsistent, his overall ball-striking numbers remain strong. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green, a key metric at a demanding course like Quail Hollow.

The model is also pointing to several longshots, including one player near 70-1 who is projected to make a “stunning run for the title.”

Rory McIlroy +550
Cameron Young +950
Xander Schauffele +1000
Matt Fitzpatrick +1500
Ludvig Åberg +1800
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Si Woo Kim +2500
Min Woo Lee +3300
Adam Scott +3300
Robert MacIntyre +3300
Sam Burns +3300
Rickie Fowler +3500
Ben Griffin +3500
Viktor Hovland +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Patrick Cantlay +3500
J.J. Spaun +4000
Chris Gotterup +4000
Jason Day +4500
Justin Thomas +4500
Jordan Spieth +4500
Nicolai Højgaard +4500
Kurt Kitayama +4500
Sepp Straka +4500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Harris English +5000
Justin Rose +5500
Ryan Gerard +6000
Akshay Bhatia +6000
Keegan Bradley +6500
Alex Smalley +7000
Alex Noren +8000
Jacob Bridgeman +8000
Gary Woodland +8000
Corey Conners +8000
Max Homa +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Matt McCarty +10000
Daniel Berger +10000
Ryo Hisatsune +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Harry Hall +10000
Samuel Stevens +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Pierceson Coody +10000
J.T. Poston +10000
Bud Cauley +10000
Nick Taylor +10000
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +10000

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Matt Fitzpatrick has Amanda Balionis cracking up with Rory McIlroy anecdote after winning $3.6M

Matt Fitzpatrick has revealed that a well-timed impression of Rory McIlroy’s caddie by his own bagman helped lighten the mood and reset his focus before he went on to defeat world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a playoff to claim his second RBC Heritage title at Harbour Town.

The Englishman had enjoyed a commanding week in South Carolina, taking a three-shot lead into Sunday’s final round. But Scheffler, never one to surrender without a fight, reeled off a series of late birdies to trim that advantage to just one shot heading into the 18th hole, setting up a nervy finish.

Matt Fitzpatrick defeated Scottie Scheffler at the RBC Heritage in a play-off and banked $3.6 million, joining Chris Gotterup as the only multiple 2026 winners.

Both players missed the green to the right with their approach shots. Scheffler played a superb pitch that settled just inches from the cup, while Fitzpatrick failed to read the pace of the fast surface correctly, leaving his chip well short and handing over a bogey. The lead was gone. A playoff beckoned.

As the pair made their way back to the 18th tee, caddie Daniel Parratt reached for a line that had become famous just weeks earlier, channelling Rory McIlroy‘s caddie Harry Diamond, who had offered his player a similar word of reassurance during the Masters.

“Yeah, you know, he actually said getting to the tee, he said, we’d have taken this start of the week, and I know Rory said that the other week,” Fitzpatrick told CBS broadcaster Amanda Balionis on the 18th green after the win.

“I jokingly said to Dan, I was like, oh okay, here he is, Harry Diamond here. Yeah, we had a good laugh about that.” The moment of levity proved well-timed. Fitzpatrick stepped onto the tee relaxed and in control, and what followed was one of the shots of the tournament.

With a stiff breeze in his face and the playoff on the line, he flushed a 4-iron to 12 feet. “I felt like I was in a good spot, and to hit the 4-iron that I hit there was out of this world,” he said. Scheffler, by contrast, fluffed his approach and was left scrambling, managing only to get his third shot to a few feet.

It didn’t matter. Fitzpatrick rolled in the birdie putt to seal the win on the 73rd hole of the week.
For Fitzpatrick, the victory carries a weight that goes beyond trophies and ranking points. He has now won the RBC Heritage twice and holds the tournament in the highest regard.

“Yeah, it means the world. It means the world,” he said. “This is a tournament I wanted to win growing up, arguably more than any of the majors before I understood about the game. To win it twice means the world. To go out today and go toe-to-toe with Scottie and get over the line there on the 73rd is special.”

POSITIONGOLFERSCOREFEDEXCUP POINTSEARNINGS
P1Matt Fitzpatrick266 / -18700.000$3,600,000.00
P2Scottie Scheffler266 / -18400.000$2,160,000.00
3S.W. Kim268 / -16350.000$1,360,000.00
T4Collin Morikawa271 / -13300.000$823,333.33
T4Harris English271 / -13300.000$823,333.33
T4Ludvig Åberg271 / -13300.000$823,333.33
7Bud Cauley272 / -12225.000$665,000.00
T8Rickie Fowler273 / -11163.750$555,000.00
T8Kurt Kitayama273 / -11163.750$555,000.00
T8Patrick Cantlay273 / -11163.750$555,000.00
T8Gary Woodland273 / -11163.750$555,000.00
T12Keegan Bradley274 / -10105.000$399,250.00
T12Matt McCarty274 / -10105.000$399,250.00
T12Xander Schauffele274 / -10105.000$399,250.00
T12Steven Fisk274 / -10105.000$399,250.00
T16Jordan Smith275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Maverick McNealy275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Wyndham Clark275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Akshay Bhatia275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Sam Burns275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Ryan Fox275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Patrick Rodhgers275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Pierceson Coody275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T16Andrew Novak275 / -957.556$256,694.44
T25Michael Kim276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Chris Gotterup276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Sahith Theesala276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25J.J. Spaun276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Russell Henley276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Cameron Young276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Aldrich Potgieter276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T25Brian Harman276 / -835.375$142,750.00
T33Michael Thorbjornsen277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Ryan Gerard277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Ben Griffin277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Adam Schenk277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Jordan Spieth277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Karl Vilips277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Jacob Bridgeman277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Chandler Blanchet277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T33Joe Highsmith277 / -723.250$92,444.44
T42Jason Day278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Sungjae Im278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Daniel Berger278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Andrew Putnam278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Michael Brennan278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Shane Lowry278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Robert MacIntyre278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Lucas Glover278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Viktor Hovland278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T42Sepp Straka278 / -615.450$55,300.00
T52Garrick Higgo279 / -511.500$43,500.00
T52Tommy Fleetwood279 / -511.500$43,500.00
T52Sudarshan Yellamaraju279 / -511.500$43,500.00
T55William Mouw280 / -49.500$39,600.00
T55Nicolai Højgaard280 / -49.500$39,600.00
T55Corey Conners280 / -49.500$39,600.00
T55Matt Wallace280 / -49.500$39,600.00
T55Sami Valimaki280 / -49.500$39,600.00
T60Ricky Castillo281 / -37.750$36,500.00
T60J.T. Poston281 / -37.750$36,500.00
T60Ryo Hisatsune281 / -37.750$36,500.00
T60Nick Taylor281 / -37.750$36,500.00
T60Min Woo Lee281 / -37.750$36,500.00
T65Denny McCarthy282 / -26.625$34,250.00
T65Harry Hall282 / -26.625$34,250.00
T65Alex Noren282 / -26.625$34,250.00
T65Sam Stevens282 / -26.625$34,250.00
T69Max Homa283 / -15.875$33,125.00
T69Johnny Keefer283 / -15.875$33,125.00
T71Taylor Pendrith284 / E5.250$32,500.00
T71Tom Hoge284 / E5.250$32,500.00
T71David Lipsky284 / E5.250$32,500.00
T74Jhonattan Vegas286 / 24.500$31,750.00
T74Austin Smotherman286 / 24.500$31,750.00
T74Jake Knapp286 / 24.500$31,750.00
T77Justin Thomas287 / 33.750$31,000.00
T77Brian Campbell287 / 33.750$31,000.00
T77Marco Penge287 / 33.750$31,000.00
80Billy Horschel289 / 53.250$30,500.00
81Nico Echavarria290 / 63.000$30,250.00
82Tony Finau295 / 112.750$30,000.00